Survivor communities outside the known world

[Superdark33]

For some reason, i see a US spinoff of SSSS as a mcguffin quest, in which a character is sent with a sacred amulet (Nuke key) to activate The Great Temple (Nuke silo) and bring salvation (Nuking a place in russia, initiating a cold war era protocol automatic chain reaction that nukes a lot of the big cities, essentialy cleaning them from the diesesed, and putting humanity a few steps closer to defeating the apocalypse.)

[sure, this relies on lots of artistic license and idiocy but whatevs]

[Stefan]

While terrible, it is conceivable that Japan may encourage their most elderly to voluntarily remove themselves (by dangerous work, exile, etc.) from the population, in order to ease the strain of feeding its people, and may view this as a heroic act, given that Japanese society seems to not suffer from excessive individualism.  A near-complete halt in reproduction, combined with the pre-crisis mortality rate, might decrease the population further by about 2 million a year, but could not be sustained for more than a few years without dire consequences.
This will be some incredibly cruel math, but, assuming a) disasters in the three largest cities within the first few years, coupled with losses from panic over the general change in social order/profession/etc. b) exacting application of Japan Self-Defense Forces against even the most remote possibilities of refugee incursion (think end of the Prologue, but with bigger ships) c) Application of all of the possibilities above d) no (immediate) catastrophic unrest e) food reserves appropriate to stave off famine for a few years, here would be my (probably wrong) estimates for Japan's population:

(...)

I'm most curious as to how their energy security situation would look.  Just 10% is renewables, uranium could supply 30% of current consumption if a sufficient fuel stockpile is attained, less what can be recycled, and the remainder is fossil fuel unavailable to Japan in the wake of losing contact to the entire world.  40% of the food and energy needs, then, and even less for losses in territory and/or consumable resources?

I also had the thought that the elders might consider to 'leave' but I also thought about how long that would take and considered it a neglectable factor, at least short term in the long term it would become a considerable factor by lowering live expectancy. Also I don't think such a convenient stroke of fate that removes a quarter of the population would happen. As for the reduction of the birth rate I agree with you that the lack of food would greatly reduce it but I doubt that there would be such a drastic reduction. Anyway good thinking!
As for the energy situation I can only say that uranium would only be in the first few years a considerable energy source because Japan has no natural sources and recycling fuel elements is also quite limited. Additionally since the only sources of fossil fuel which are in Japan can only deliver a fraction of what they need the only option for Japan to satisfy their energy demand would be to use renewable sources, mainly geothermal(Honshu, Hokkaido and limited Kiushu) and solar(Okinawa prefecture and Kiushu).

Huh, seems my estimation wasn't too far off then.
Though I doubt such a thing as intentional rash infection really would happen.
And considering Japan's culture I actually doubt they'd have a civil war. Maybe coups and such, but not so much the population itself being divided and fighting each other.
I also think excursions into Korea/China actually would happen quite quickly, relatively speaking.(within two decades, I'm thinking)
Unlike the Scandinavians in this story, the Japanese would have an incentive to explore out of desperation.
Hell, food shortages was one of the main reasons post-Meiji era Japan decided to go the imperial route in the first place.
It would be a divisive issue, though. If Japan ended up "fracturing" then I imagine certain factions would be more conservative than others. Metropolitan areas would probably be quite eager to strike out, while areas such as Hokkaido that technically can be self-sufficient would probably be very conservative on this notion.

I also imagine "excursions" could be a way for society to "rid" itself of superfluous people. Convicts, old people, unsustainable individuals, undesirables all could be sent out on a "sacred mission" or whatever.
In reality it would be an attempt to either establish a foothold outside Japan at minimum budget, or get rid of hungry, useless mouths. Most likely the latter, but with an incentive that would avoid sparking conflict.
No one is going to stand up for a criminal convict being sent to an almost certain doom.

I have a different view on the matter of civil war. Since a great famine can put quite considerable stress on a society, and each society, no matter how strong, will fracture if there is enough stress. But looking on the past history of Japan such a scenario is amittedly unlikely.
On the matter of colonisation I can only say that it all depends on how inclined the ones in power are to take risks and as how large they perceive said risks. If they are looking for a way to rid themself from the undesirable portion of their population by tasking them with colonising the surrounding areas can easily backfire if done wrong or the costs can get to high in the long run.

Almost funny how the rash would allow Japan to retake former Japanese territory such as Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands(though the latter do not have much purpose). Maybe even some Russians would be surviving there if local authorities took measures, but they would probably soon find themselves under the boot. It could actually turn pretty nasty when the Japanese's need for more farmland would become the hot-button issue.
I would like to think there wouldn't essentially be merciless oppression(if not outright genocide) of survivors there... but I'm pretty sure there would be. Still, this is under the assumption the island is generally safe from the rash after the rest of the world breaks down. If the rash has taken hold, it would need cleansing.

While Sakhalin only has about 100 growing days a year, something that would surely become an object of extreme interest in oil and natural gas, which makes up most of the island's current economy.
An intact Japan would almost certainly go for that once it becomes clear to them that the Russian state has basically ceased to exist.

The possibility of Japan retaking Sakhalin, while interesting, is not very likely. Because as soon as calculate the costs and risks against what could be gained it becomes from an economical and security perspective useless and highly risky. For one the 14 billion barrels of oil on and around Sakhalin would last Japan less than 10 years at its current consumption rate of 1.5 billion barrels a year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan). Considering this it would be more reasonable for Japan to employ renewable energy sources than trying to gain access to Sakhalins oil reserves. And depending on how large Japan perceives the risk of introducing the rash through an attempt to take Sakhalin the might even decide not take this risk at all and restrain themself to their own ressources. I admit that these views can and will change over time but I think the result will stay the same unless perhaps an vaccine for the rash is found.

[Hrollo]

Side-note: while fuel is the main use of oil, even with renewable energy hydrocarbons extracted from crude oil and natural gaz would remain in high demand and use (starting with the fact that they are needed for the creation of any explosive more sophisticated than gunpowder; the entire chemical industry is highly dependent on access to abundant hydrocarbon sources).

There are way to artificially create hydrocarbons, but they are still on the experimental stage and very costly.

[Fimbulvarg]

Side-note: while fuel is the main use of oil, even with renewable energy hydrocarbons extracted from crude oil and natural gaz would remain in high demand and use (starting with the fact that they are needed for the creation of any explosive more sophisticated than gunpowder; the entire chemical industry is highly dependent on access to abundant hydrocarbon sources).

There are way to artificially create hydrocarbons, but they are still on the experimental stage and very costly.

Yeah. Also plastics. Plastics can be recycled but it's costly and inefficient.

[Stefan]

Side-note: while fuel is the main use of oil, even with renewable energy hydrocarbons extracted from crude oil and natural gaz would remain in high demand and use (starting with the fact that they are needed for the creation of any explosive more sophisticated than gunpowder; the entire chemical industry is highly dependent on access to abundant hydrocarbon sources).

There are way to artificially create hydrocarbons, but they are still on the experimental stage and very costly.

I have to object. While nowadays oil is the most important raw material for the chemical industry, many processes like Haber-Bosch for Ammonia where invented before oil was widely available. The main base product in the chemical industry is Syngas which can be produced by many ways(like steam reforming of oil and natural gas or by gasification of coal). You can also produce Syngas from Carbondioxide and Water which is a bit difficult and requires considerable amounts of energy. As for the synthesis of hydrocarbons you might want to look at the Fischer-Tropsch process (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process) which is in industrial use since 1936. As for explosives Dynamite and Nitroglycerine were mass produced before oil was even available in usefull amounts(as a historical note: Alfred Nobel, the one who invented Dynamite, partook in financing the start of the oil industry in Baku by his brothers). Oh and before I forget TNT was synthesized by using coal tar until it was replaced by oil during World War 2.

Yeah. Also plastics. Plastics can be recycled but it's costly and inefficient.

That greatly depends on the kind of plastic you look at. Thermoplastics like PVC and PE can be easily efficiently recycled if you seperate the single types. The real problem are composites which are widely used in packaging like e.g. milk cartons(one or two layers PE followed by one layer aluminum, then again a layer of PE, a layer of paper and finaly a layer of PE) which are very difficult to seperate and recycle.

[Hrollo]

Most of the process you mention still require a source of hydrocarbons — I simply had overlooked that coal is also such a source.

And this doesn't even get even  byproducts. Hydrocarbon sources are also where we get most of our hydrogen and sulfur from.

[BrainBlow]

The possibility of Japan retaking Sakhalin, while interesting, is not very likely. Because as soon as calculate the costs and risks against what could be gained it becomes from an economical and security perspective useless and highly risky. For one the 14 billion barrels of oil on and around Sakhalin would last Japan less than 10 years at its current consumption rate of 1.5 billion barrels a year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan). Considering this it would be more reasonable for Japan to employ renewable energy sources than trying to gain access to Sakhalins oil reserves. And depending on how large Japan perceives the risk of introducing the rash through an attempt to take Sakhalin the might even decide not take this risk at all and restrain themself to their own resources. I admit that these views can and will change over time but I think the result will stay the same unless perhaps an vaccine for the rash is found.

Japan's oil consumption would obviously drop as population numbers sink drastically, and even bans on unnecessary fuel usage would be enforced.
And when the option is to get their hands on some oil(and tenable land for the starving masses, remember) or to get none, it becomes a forced choice, especially if the rash doesn't beset Sakhalin.
You can't simply skip jump straight over to renewable energy sources. If it was that simple, Japan would already have done it IRL.

[ruth]

hey headfinder! i messed around with a few things, i hope that's okay. this is still a rough draft, and i'm not SUPER up on my NZ/AUS geography, but i do know a couple of tough facts when it comes to a surviving ANZ area.

the tough part: much of the two countries, even the southern fringes, are simply too warm to eradicate trolls, even in the winter. tasmania gets hit especially hard by this: with few high mountain ranges, most of the island just doesn't get cold enough to sustain reliable snow. the one possible exception, from a little research, is queenstown (AUS) and the mountain it sits at the foot of, which are high up enough to get a couple days of snow a year. it's likely that people would move higher up mount owen and mount lyell and reinhabit a few of the ghost towns from the abandoned copper mine. however, with a habitable area this small, and hemmed in by the rest of the country, which would serve as a festering troll breeding ground in winter due to the long nights and insufficient cold, their existence would be highly precarious, and i expect it wouldn't be too surprising if the remaining australians would be evacuated to the safer new zealand if they ever made contact.

onto new zealand. on paper, their situation is much improved, though i think the fact remains that christchurch, with a population of almost 400,000, is simply too populated to avoid an outbreak of the rash, especially if the north island of new zealand is going to succumb. we've seen that denmark, even as the fourth nation to close its borders, lost all but the remote bornholm to the illness; new zealand, i think, would be no different, with only the icy spine of mountains across the centre of the island providing shelter for the more remote, rocky western half from the silent eastern zone. nelson as the capital is generous, though i think it's conceivable; if nelson, too, falls to the rash, greymouth, population 10.000, or queenstown (NZ), population 16.000, would likely be the heart of the remainder of the island nation. invercargill, with its winter mean low temperatures hovering around freezing, would be an easily achieved reclamation.

but on all counts, the coastline would always be a risky proposition, because of the large population of fur seals that, as beasts, would threaten the small remnants of civilization. the paucity of snow and ice might mean that only small settlements of immune humans would live on in mountain settlements, like queenstown (NZ).

japan is a really interesting case. i'm still thinking about it, but i have a couple ideas i'll throw out in a couple days or so.

[Deadlander]

ooh... I forgot about them. Given the returhn to the old ways in Scandanavia, I wonder if the Shamans of Native america would find thier own magic "reactivated". The Native American Mythos is poulated by Animal Spirits, who sometimes supported Humans, and sometimes not, but I think, with Nature Gone Wrong, "They" might just decide to "throw their support" to the Humans...

Instead of relying on electric fences, perhaps the native Americans would use Totems....

On the subject of Aboriginal Americans, I found some interesting mythological descriptioons while researching the fates of the Pacific Northwest (of North America):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamatsa - Baxbaxwalanuksiwe is a many-mouthed giant - "One version of the story describes the giant with mouths all over his body" - whom brothers must kill to gain powers.  That struck me as a little relevant to the scenario at hand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_and_religion_of_the_Tlingit - This philosophy appears to focus on fire, and on the proper cleansing of the dead (esp. to prevent their return/haunting).  I dunno, I might just be reading too far in there, but... fire mages?

I do doubt the totems-as-fences, but perhaps the tribes with whaling histories would take an aggressive approach against the trolls and leviathans, reviving their formidable, ocean-going, redcedar canoes and mixing in all the finest of modern weaponry, as the Haida once did?  They were essentially the Pacific's Viking culture, after all, and the Norwegians seem to have done all right for themselves, given the circumstances.

[Tazzie]

Interesting maps of Australia and New Zealand - however when i look at them i always find myself thinking of the smaller islands like Norfolk Island, Phillip Island, French Island,Kangaroo Island, Wy ect and the isolated 'mountain' populations living in the Great Dividing Ranger's and the Blue Mountains, wondering if they could survive?

Most are self sustainable and even have a low population, but the problem is that when its winter, it does not snow.

The thing is - most of the smaller islands around Australia and New Zealand can easily restrict access if needed to.

Then you also have to consider 'inland' as even tho they do not have cold winter, they are mostly very hot or humid areas to live in.
Examples; Alice Springs and Mildura.

And then again, you need o take into account that most of the inland is 'wasteland/ shrub'. Even in WA, NT, QLD and NSW there is a massive desert that stretches across the inland of Australia, fringed with shrub-land/wasteland - or 'The Outback'.
And we also have a massive feral cat problem...

[BrainBlow]

japan is a really interesting case. i'm still thinking about it, but i have a couple ideas i'll throw out in a couple days or so.

I think what Japan would need is "multiple scenarios".
After all, coincidences and the human mind can't easily be predicted as if it was a math problem.

[Superdark33]

I love to think Israel survives, if by WWZ (book, what movie?) refarence or by logic (Lots of military and technology for a small space, enough rifts within the population to have multiple mage types, personal bias, self indulgence etc).

Ill try my own map.

[Hrollo]

Israel is at subtropical latitude, with no natural obstacles, not an island, has one of the highest population density in the region, is bordered to the north by a country with an even higher population density (not to mention that of a certain unrecognized territory that exists within Israel).

I don't see how this could work, and bias has little to do with it: the entire middle east is pretty much toast.

[Fimbulvarg]

the entire middle east is pretty much toast.

Socotra might have had a chance. A slim one. It's an isolated archipelago after all.

[Superdark33]

Eh, i cant see a reason why trolls and giants cant handle cold but can handle heat. Besides, assuming questionable acts (Like shooting the survivors in the last act of the prolouge), i think Israel can cling to life at year 90, waiting for the population and will to be big enough to take retake the rest of the land.

But yeah, without rule of Drama, Israel is either toast or milquetoast (and honey).