Survivor communities outside the known world

[JoB]

I'm worried how Iceland's history will look, given the drastic reduction in population and excluding Rash as a factor, if 2/3 of the population has disappeared.  Is Dagrenning more than just a breeding initiative?

Are you alluding to euthanasia or "erring to the side of safety" while throwing suspected infected out? Not too likely IMHO. However, keeping the existing population fed likely required that fishery be turned up to the max - which isn't too easy with a fleet still based on the now-cut-off oil supply, and on seas that make the skipper of a warship worry about encountering whales.

Not that the actions of said warship would suggest that they would've had hesitated to cut deep to remedy the problems, though ...

[BrainBlow]

*Snip*

Huh, seems my estimation wasn't too far off then.
Though I doubt such a thing as intentional rash infection really would happen.
And considering Japan's culture I actually doubt they'd have a civil war. Maybe coups and such, but not so much the population itself being divided and fighting each other.
I also think excursions into Korea/China actually would happen quite quickly, relatively speaking.(within two decades, I'm thinking)
Unlike the Scandinavians in this story, the Japanese would have an incentive to explore out of desperation.
Hell, food shortages was one of the main reasons post-Meiji era Japan decided to go the imperial route in the first place.
It would be a divisive issue, though. If Japan ended up "fracturing" then I imagine certain factions would be more conservative than others. Metropolitan areas would probably be quite eager to strike out, while areas such as Hokkaido that technically can be self-sufficient would probably be very conservative on this notion.

I also imagine "excursions" could be a way for society to "rid" itself of superfluous people. Convicts, old people, unsustainable individuals, undesirables all could be sent out on a "sacred mission" or whatever.
In reality it would be an attempt to either establish a foothold outside Japan at minimum budget, or get rid of hungry, useless mouths. Most likely the latter, but with an incentive that would avoid sparking conflict.
No one is going to stand up for a criminal convict being sent to an almost certain doom.

[Hrollo]

I think the reason why the rash might still make it to Japan is that, even with the country on lock down, they are still bordered quite closely by mainland China; unlike Iceland which is isolated far from Europe and America, they would have to deal not with dozens of would be refugees, but with probably hundred of thousands; even with the entire Japanese navy mobilised, it would be very hard to prevent them all from passing through and carry the rash with them, especially given the tremondous size of Japan's coastline (29,751 km, compared to the US' 19,924 km and Iceland's 4,970 km) made up of several thousands of islands, in a country that is bigger than Norway.

[BrainBlow]

I think the reason why the rash might still make it to Japan is that, even with the country on lock down, they are still bordered quite closely by mainland China; unlike Iceland which is isolated far from Europe and America, they would have to deal not with dozens of would be refugees, but with probably hundred of thousands; even with the entire Japanese navy mobilised, it would be very hard to prevent them all from passing through and carry the rash with them, especially given the tremondous size of Japan's coastline (29,751 km, compared to the US' 19,924 km and Iceland's 4,970 km) made up of several thousands of islands, in a country that is bigger than Norway.

Eh, the distance between Japan and mainland China is pretty damn huge.
It's no simple day trip going over there, and any boat large enough to make the journey would also be noisy enough to quickly be detected once international traffic around it dies down.
I believe it's also been generally established that most people would not attempt to flee from the rash like you would a regular natural disaster.
Most would board up in their homes, or go further inland into their own countries, which requires less resources and effort on the refugees' part.
Japan does have a huge coastline, but realistically there's only a fraction of it that actually needs tight defending.
There's the entire pacific ocean on one side, and a sparsely populated Eurasian mainland on almost the entire northern side. It is mostly just the sea between South-Korea and Kyushu that would need defending, and even there most of South-Korea's population lives on the western coast of the country.

The Japanese naval forces is nothing to sneeze at either when mere defenseless refugees is the "enemy". The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force(which would most likely be mobilized as a state of emergency gets declared) has over one hundred ships capable of patrolling. To quote wikipedia

As of 2013, the JMSDF operates a total of 114 ships (excluding minor auxiliary vessels), including; two helicopter destroyers (or helicopter carriers), 26 destroyers, 13 small destroyers (or frigates), six destroyer escorts (or corvettes), 16 attack submarines, 29 mine countermeasure vessels, six patrol vessels, three landing ship tanks, eight training vessels and a fleet of various auxiliary ships. The fleet has a total displacement of approximately 450,000 tonnes (including auxiliary vessels).

They also have several hundred planes.

And that's just the maritime self-defense force. The Japanese coast guard has even more ships. Less deadly, but no problem facing unarmed ships.

The JCG operates 455 watercraft, these include the following:

Patrol Vessels: 121
Patrol craft: 234
Special guard and rescue craft: 63
Hydrographic survey vessels: 13
Aids to navigation evaluation vessels: 1
Buoy tenders: 2
Aids to navigation tenders: 18
Training boats: 3

And they've also got a bunch of planes and helicopters to do reconnaissance with.
These would undoubtedly all be mobilized as the rash started sinking its teeth into the Asian mainland.
We saw how merciless the Icelandic coast guard was, and I do not doubt the Japanese navy and coast guard would be even harsher. And Iceland's coast guard only has four ships, and the country has no armed forces other than that.

I'm not saying it's impenetrable, but defending against refugees is far from a hopeless case.

[Deadlander]

Agreed, the JSDF would be well-equipped to handle the areas of crossing-over - the main focus of their re-arming has been China and the Korean peninsula, as well.

My guess ran counter to the idea of exploration b/c of how horrible the outside world would appear, encouraging isolation (via horror stories from JSDF crews, etc.) until after Japan had to deal with its own Rash outbreak (whether desperate attack or recall of patrols to deal w/internal unrest) or over-populated itself in a more typical fashion than having their infrastructure fall out.

But I could see your scenario, of a great push for colonization starting a few years in; although it would spell the end for the vast majority (as, I suppose, would be the tacit plan), there might even be the odd success.  Although most of the Chinese and South Korean coast would be hopelessly over-populated w/trolls (http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/712130main_8246931247_e60f3c09fb_o.jpg), North Korea and the former Russian territories would actually have some chance for re-colonization, thanks to the low development there.  Although North Korean lands might also face trolls coming in from either end...

[Sanlade]

Scandinavia and iceland compared to USA in some critical aspects regarding the rash disease:

1. Population density:
USA: 30.71 population/sq km
Hawai: 71.81 population/sq km

Finland: 15.50 population/sq km
Sweden: 20.01 population/sq km

2. Geography: Iceland, Denmark and Faroe Islands consist of islands, which is more easy to control, restrict and isolate during a pandemic. USA has a large body of undivided land.

3. Climate: Since winter and cold is a restricting factor, the nordic countrys have a edge over USA. Alaska would propably survive quite well also.
And the days in the nordic countries during summer have long daylight time. In some areas the sun dosen't go behind the horizon at all during night.

4. Culture: Finland and sweden dosen't have the luxury of being islands(except having many small ones). But in those countries there is a "summer cottage" tradition, when people isolate themselves in the "wilderness" during summer. They can be quite self sufficient, and are often located away from heavely populated areas.

[Mkvenner]

As a nation-state, no. The ones who survive are likely to be a mix of neo-Nazis, Christian fundamentalists, survivalists, or a combination of all three.

[Mkvenner]

This is in order of off the top of my head, of areas of possible survivors.
Hawaii
New Zealand
Australia
Northern Canada
Alaska
Siberia
Himalayas
South Pacific
The Andes
The Rockies and Appalachia
North Korea(this is the least likely)
Indonesia
Philippines
Afghanistan
West Indies
 

[Headfinder]

• Year 6 - 52,450,000 souls (1 million by famine/unrest/suppression, 2 million by going-away ceremony/suicide, 0.2 million natural death-birth - population at pre-1915 levels and approaching state of civil war)
• Year 12 - 26,300,000 souls (1 million by oppression, 0.5 million by going-away ceremony, +0.1 million by birth-natural death - the war over, recriminations begin, while the victors enjoy the first net growth in recent memory)

Famine and such might spark a civil war, but not drive it, you need a rupture in society. Choosing one king or another, wanting one form of government or another, wanting freedom or oppresion for one group, two oppossing political on the extremist end both... Those all can fuel and drive a war, but you can't keep a war going only because of hunger and the monsters out there. You'd get a revolt, but not a 6 year long war.

[BrainBlow]

Agreed, the JSDF would be well-equipped to handle the areas of crossing-over - the main focus of their re-arming has been China and the Korean peninsula, as well.

My guess ran counter to the idea of exploration b/c of how horrible the outside world would appear, encouraging isolation (via horror stories from JSDF crews, etc.) until after Japan had to deal with its own Rash outbreak (whether desperate attack or recall of patrols to deal w/internal unrest) or over-populated itself in a more typical fashion than having their infrastructure fall out.

But I could see your scenario, of a great push for colonization starting a few years in; although it would spell the end for the vast majority (as, I suppose, would be the tacit plan), there might even be the odd success.  Although most of the Chinese and South Korean coast would be hopelessly over-populated w/trolls (http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/712130main_8246931247_e60f3c09fb_o.jpg), North Korea and the former Russian territories would actually have some chance for re-colonization, thanks to the low development there.  Although North Korean lands might also face trolls coming in from either end...

Almost funny how the rash would allow Japan to retake former Japanese territory such as Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands(though the latter do not have much purpose). Maybe even some Russians would be surviving there if local authorities took measures, but they would probably soon find themselves under the boot. It could actually turn pretty nasty when the Japanese's need for more farmland would become the hot-button issue.
I would like to think there wouldn't essentially be merciless oppression(if not outright genocide) of survivors there... but I'm pretty sure there would be. Still, this is under the assumption the island is generally safe from the rash after the rest of the world breaks down. If the rash has taken hold, it would need cleansing.

While Sakhalin only has about 100 growing days a year, something that would surely become an object of extreme interest in oil and natural gas, which makes up most of the island's current economy.
An intact Japan would almost certainly go for that once it becomes clear to them that the Russian state has basically ceased to exist.

[Deadlander]

Good point, perhaps there would not be a revolt - looking into the most similar historical event, the Holodomor in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor), a 40% loss in agricultural production (til the Rash is worse than Stalin) killed about 15% of the population (disease, starvation, cannibalism, etc.) in two years, by moderate estimates - losses of 15% per annum (60% production loss, minimum, and less-targeted inequality of distribution) would, even excluding other effects, paint this picture for the first few years after Year 3:

• Year 3 - 66,150,000 souls
• Year 4 - 56,277,500 souls (15% loss)
• Year 5 - 47,793,375 souls (15% loss)
• Year 6 - 43,014,038 souls (10% loss, the most at-risk are gone)
• Year 7 - 38,712,634 souls (10% loss)
• Year 8 - 34,841,370 souls (10% loss)

Lawks.  At this point, the scenario might better resemble the Great Famine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)), even without the other factors at work.

While Sakhalin only has about 100 growing days a year, something that would surely become an object of extreme interest in oil and natural gas, which makes up most of the island's current economy.
An intact Japan would almost certainly go for that once it becomes clear to them that the Russian state has basically ceased to exist.

Hence the energy security question.  Formerly-Russian oil might be a big motivation that avoids the worst of the Silent World.

[Haverberg]

I'm going to be totally random and declare that as the story is set in Scandinavia and Minna has declared there could be very far reaching adventures for the main crew, that there would be significant (10K+) survivor communities in the American upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest.

Why? Entirely for story-related reasons, as these are the major U.S. concentrations of Norwegian, Swedish, and Finnish immigration. Maybe Minneapolis and Seattle would be part of the silent world, but the north woods, the iron range, areas along the Red River of the North, and the Dakotas (oil!) could be sufficiently isolated, and some communities along the great lakes such as Green Bay (go Packers!). Don't know about the Pacific Northwest but east of the Rockies Washington/Oregon gets pretty remote. Plus Indian reservations such as Red Lake and Pine Bend.

[Thorin Schmidt]

I honestly can't understand what you're trying to say? And don't make this a political debate, that's not what we're here for.

Sorry, I was making a tongue-in-cheek remark that was just supposed to be a one-off.  The context of my statement was from an earlier post that said the Rash would turn the Government into a shambles.

I quoted that, then said that America would probably run better WITHOUT the gov't.  I should have left it there, but then got a little preachy.
Sorry, everyone.

[Thorin Schmidt]

Plus Indian reservations such as Red Lake and Pine Bend.

ooh... I forgot about them. Given the returhn to the old ways in Scandanavia, I wonder if the Shamans of Native america would find thier own magic "reactivated". The Native American Mythos is poulated by Animal Spirits, who sometimes supported Humans, and sometimes not, but I think, with Nature Gone Wrong, "They" might just decide to "throw their support" to the Humans...

Instead of relying on electric fences, perhaps the native Americans would use Totems....

[Headfinder]

We need more maps!

There. The Austral Pacific Islands. Or some other name better than that.

I spent only a few hours with it (mostly searching for maps), the land coloring being an extremely innacurate, rough estimate. That's why I'm leaving here a colour template, and the .xcf file where the template has to be applied.

Settlements, routes, military, quarantine facilities and names will be added by someone more knowledgeable of Australia and New Zealand in a copy of the template; and then added to the map by me, ruth, or someone else that knows either GIMP or Photoshop (and is willing to do it); and then further modified to have it's own legend, flags and such.