Poll

What do you think the state of things is beyond Scandinavia?

More of the Silent World: Trolls, beasts and giants everywhere
7 (16.7%)
A few groups of humans, but mostly wilderness
14 (33.3%)
USA and other superpowers are relatively intact
0 (0%)
Scorched Earth: nothing, not even grosslings, is alive
0 (0%)
Plenty of places like Scandinavia, but isolated
21 (50%)

Total Members Voted: 37

Voting closed: July 03, 2015, 03:28:37 PM

Author Topic: Survivor communities outside the known world  (Read 259072 times)

Hrollo

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #375 on: February 07, 2015, 05:13:27 PM »
Russia and the US have been discussed —and mostly dismissed. A big country is not an advantage in this scenario; it just makes it much more likely for something to cross the border —unless you think the Russian military can magically prevent any infected human or mammal (including bats) from crossing anywhere over 20,000 kilometers of land border. And once something has entered, it doesn't matter how well organised you are [and Russia is far from "well organised"], when the disease infects and kills 95% of people, infrastructures can only collapse —in fact Russia is probably a pretty bad place in that regard, since the vast majority of Russian's population is crowded along the European border (the place most likely to see the first Russian infected).

Isolated areas within the US and Russia are likely to survive. US and Russia as a whole are not.
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Lovely

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #376 on: February 07, 2015, 06:25:41 PM »
Isolated areas within the US and Russia are likely to survive. US and Russia as a whole are not.

But I talked not about a whole Russia or USA. I talked about a small part of that countries, where Military can arrange safe zone and evacuate the people. Electricity from nuclear reactors on submarines and Ice-breakers, food and another resourses from military depots and military bases in first few years and after have a level of technology and sources of resources like a Swedish version of civilisation but with more biggest number of a people and high-lvl tech. Only Sakhalin have 500.000 citizen, public warehouses in case of war, military bases and fishing fleet. And that island also well isolated, becausee noone care about a Sakhalin. If we lost that island we still save a Kamchatka with 300,000 citizen, where we actually can bild a defence against mammal in few next mount - Kamchatka is a well isolated part of Eurasia and people here will be ready to meet the infection after several months. And Russia or USA save more people then Scandinavia, just because 20,000 kilometers of land border means what infected human or mammal (including bats) will be go too long to a isolated towns. Several months or near.

In Finland the lakes was a pretty good defence, anyway.

Of course we can't magically prevent any infected human or mammal (including bats) from crossing anywhere over 20,000 kilometers of land border, but size of Russia is a defence itself. How many time need a bat or a wolf to go all the way in 5,000 kilometers from border to a town with a people? In some cases it's be a days or weeks, if town near has the big airport. In another cases it can take a years. Why AirForse can't evacuate a people from some towns on Kuril island where Military make a quarantine zone? And why Russian military can't keep the 50 km of a isthmus on Kamchatka in the climate zone of the Far North? In an extreme case, we can detonate a few nuclear bomb on that isthmus, because Kamchatka is just a indastrial base for the fleet. If we need growe a food - we have a Sakhalin and Islands in the Pacific. If we need technology - why Russian can't fly in the isolated and low-popylated city and take out the old equipment from the Soviet Era?

It's be not a country like a Iceland but Russia will be have better tecnological lvl then Sweden and more people then in all Scandinavia. Pretty same with a USA, that people have enough military to create a safe zone.

[and Russia is far from "well organised"],

Excluding our Military. Ministry of Emergency Situations and Usually in Russia everything starts to work only in an extreme situation. If well-prepared Scandinavian people keept defense during the 90 years why Russian people can't be well prepared, if have a real advantage in the size of a territory ans better lvl of a isolation - so, some part of Russia will be have more time for preparing and Russia itself have more resourses and and more organized military.

USA, for example, just can clear up the Hawaii from their fleet and lost only small part of soldiers. If they need a women - they can evacuate them from other islands. Really that Epidemy have only one problem - long incubation period. Quarantine allow to save the people. Why can not give for all the gas-masks? It's airborne infection and it's worked in comix.

I'm sure that Russia and the US can save a lot more people then Iceland and pretty close tecnological lvl with a Sweden at least
« Last Edit: February 07, 2015, 06:36:43 PM by Lovely »

Oskutin

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #377 on: February 07, 2015, 10:38:20 PM »
Orginally a lot of people may have survived the pandemic and lived on supplies and remains what they managed to find, until they ran out.
First ten years propably went with supplies and every community who failed to get own food sources and production wiped out...
For the more than first 50 years population kept decreasing due lack of food, lack of supplies, troll attacks and other diseases and only very few connected communities managed to survive.

Many Siberian towns may survive for years, but eventually vanish due previous reasons until theres only couple of small and connected ones left.

Laowai

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #378 on: February 07, 2015, 11:33:17 PM »

And now the worst part:
Where do you get resources? From the source obviously. And there'll probably a village, town or even city there already, with all it's trolls and nasty stuff. You'll have to cleanse an area before exploiting it and get food from it, and for that, you'll need resources: fuel, bullets, steel...
The cold, however, is free, carries no risks for the population (which was small to begin with) and makes cleansing way easier by not having to hunt every single troll and risk leaving some alive.


Scavenging is a perfectly viable way to attain resources during the first few years. We haven't seen much of the trolls yet, but given that the crew was able to travel around in the cattank without any trouble, I'm lead to believe that trolls don't attack humans regularly. Survivors could enter markets and other buildings during the day and have a night watch when the trolls are more active.
The resources needed are really very little. The most important things are water and clothing. Guns, steel, and fuel provide the assumption that other survivors can live up to the standards the Scandinavians have, and that simply would not be possible. However, that doesn't mean human beings won't survive without these things. And, given that one of the golden rules is to stay silent, bows and arrows and spears make much more sense to me than guns. They're also much easier to make. The survivors would have to adapt to pre-modern living standards. Admittedly, this would be extremely difficult, but not impossible.

As to settling down, I make my argument for the Alps being an ideal place because it has lots of water, is cold, and the mountains provide a huge asset in terms of defense and cleansing. I think cleansing the valleys of the alps would be easier because they provide a sort-of channel to direct the trolls through. Start at one end of a valley, build a fire long enough to stretch across the entire valley, and let it burn through. The steep mountain sides prevent the trolls from escaping, and eventually they are cornered at the other end of the valley, where they are incinerated. Also, many lakes in the alps are man made using dams. These lakes are therefore surrounded on three sides by steep mountains, and on the fourth side by a steep dam. Often the paths leading to the top of these dams are long and spindly, and super ridiculously easy to defend. If nothing else, people could find a way to sleep on top of the dam at night, and venture down into the valley by day.

A side note, much of the world would be completely unrecognizable after 90 years without human intervention. Forests would grow back and plants would start to take over everything. For example, the "island jungles" in southern China would creep back down the mountains and reclaim the land that the Chinese used for farming. This means more food sources and more building material for any potential survivors.

Lovely

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #379 on: February 08, 2015, 08:00:54 PM »
Many Siberian towns may survive for years, but eventually vanish due previous reasons until theres only couple of small and connected ones left.

So, it's mean what Canadian, US and Russian military can evacuate a people from isolated towns in a safety areas, usually in Pacific region, and it's be near ten millions of survivers. I see no reason why US or Russian navy can't do that.

BrainBlow

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #380 on: February 09, 2015, 09:27:36 AM »
But I talked not about a whole Russia or USA. I talked about a small part of that countries, where Military can arrange safe zone and evacuate the people. Electricity from nuclear reactors on submarines and Ice-breakers, food and another resourses from military depots and military bases in first few years and after have a level of technology and sources of resources like a Swedish version of civilisation but with more biggest number of a people and high-lvl tech. Only Sakhalin have 500.000 citizen, public warehouses in case of war, military bases and fishing fleet. And that island also well isolated, becausee noone care about a Sakhalin. If we lost that island we still save a Kamchatka with 300,000 citizen, where we actually can bild a defence against mammal in few next mount - Kamchatka is a well isolated part of Eurasia and people here will be ready to meet the infection after several months. And Russia or USA save more people then Scandinavia, just because 20,000 kilometers of land border means what infected human or mammal (including bats) will be go too long to a isolated towns. Several months or near.

In Finland the lakes was a pretty good defence, anyway.

Of course we can't magically prevent any infected human or mammal (including bats) from crossing anywhere over 20,000 kilometers of land border, but size of Russia is a defence itself. How many time need a bat or a wolf to go all the way in 5,000 kilometers from border to a town with a people? In some cases it's be a days or weeks, if town near has the big airport. In another cases it can take a years. Why AirForse can't evacuate a people from some towns on Kuril island where Military make a quarantine zone? And why Russian military can't keep the 50 km of a isthmus on Kamchatka in the climate zone of the Far North? In an extreme case, we can detonate a few nuclear bomb on that isthmus, because Kamchatka is just a indastrial base for the fleet. If we need growe a food - we have a Sakhalin and Islands in the Pacific. If we need technology - why Russian can't fly in the isolated and low-popylated city and take out the old equipment from the Soviet Era?

It's be not a country like a Iceland but Russia will be have better tecnological lvl then Sweden and more people then in all Scandinavia. Pretty same with a USA, that people have enough military to create a safe zone.

Excluding our Military. Ministry of Emergency Situations and Usually in Russia everything starts to work only in an extreme situation. If well-prepared Scandinavian people keept defense during the 90 years why Russian people can't be well prepared, if have a real advantage in the size of a territory ans better lvl of a isolation - so, some part of Russia will be have more time for preparing and Russia itself have more resourses and and more organized military.

USA, for example, just can clear up the Hawaii from their fleet and lost only small part of soldiers. If they need a women - they can evacuate them from other islands. Really that Epidemy have only one problem - long incubation period. Quarantine allow to save the people. Why can not give for all the gas-masks? It's airborne infection and it's worked in comix.

I'm sure that Russia and the US can save a lot more people then Iceland and pretty close tecnological lvl with a Sweden at least

You seem overly reliant on military here.
Any military force requires extensive and constant funding and supplies to keep working, which is straight up impossible at the scale of Russia or the US when the entire surrounding world collapses. HALF of Russia's national budget comes from oil exports, which would within months virtually cease to exist, as would any and all vital imports to Russia.
The central government would inevitably collapse in such an apocalyptic scenario. You can't manage a country of 144 million people like that.

Hell, it's not even about the "surrounding world" collapsing. Russia and the US would have infected individuals within its borders long before these countries would seriously shut down any and all international trade and travel, and you only need that one infected individual wandering freely in crowded area for the Pandora's box to be irreversibly unleashed.

So, it's mean what Canadian, US and Russian military can evacuate a people from isolated towns in a safety areas, usually in Pacific region, and it's be near ten millions of survivers. I see no reason why US or Russian navy can't do that.
There's only so many individuals you can carry in a ship at once, and you only need one infected individual.
Even then, you'll be left with an enormous amount of refugees that have no infrastructure or economy to support them. You can't conjure up resources out of nothing.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 09:29:21 AM by BrainBlow »


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FinnishViking

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #381 on: February 09, 2015, 12:13:39 PM »
Also this really depends on the military well... doing their job.

In a situation like this it seems to me that it's highly likely that the military force would face a breakdown since most commanding officers would most likely be dead and communication between armed personal disrupted resulting in different squads doing different things that could be counter productive since once the highest command falls the invidual leaders are going to start making their own decissions.

With this in mind i imagine that people would also start deserting since once they realize the nature of the disease they would want to get as far away from the centralized military compounds as possible.

Also what makes you think the military could even be in a shape to fight at this point? From what we can tell the rash could have easily spread to the aforementioned military compounds especially when the troops would have been mobilized risking infecting whole bases effectively crippling the armed forces.

Lovely

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #382 on: February 09, 2015, 11:17:31 PM »
I think that people here don't understand absolutely modus operandi of the armed forces. Rash epidemy from point of view of a World Military looks like a Third World War. If you're interested, and the Soviet Union and the United States are actively developed biological weapons during the Cold War and the military are required to have an action plan in this case. Moreover, no one here could say that it really was not a biological weapon.

In any case, the Rash Epidemic will be looks like a War. Dying officers and crumbling economic system, the panic everywhere. And really Military should be ready for that.

In a situation like this it seems to me that it's highly likely that the military force would face a breakdown since most commanding officers would most likely be dead and communication between armed personal disrupted resulting in different squads doing different things that could be counter productive since once the highest command falls the invidual leaders are going to start making their own decissions.

With this in mind i imagine that people would also start deserting since once they realize the nature of the disease they would want to get as far away from the centralized military compounds as possible.

In the Army we named that as Discipline and Subordination. If a senior officer dies so youngest officer become a commander. Rash is a airborne disease with a big incubation period and if people know about that they can make something for defence. Quarantine, isolation, protective suits and masks. Russian military, for example, have a special military units of a anty-biological and anty-chemical defence, and usually every military base have at least one company.

Of course, lots of military people died in first few next weeks but the soldiers and officers in a centralized military compounds will be have lots of reasons for save that centralized system, because only if they save a coordination and discipline they get a chance to survive. And really lots of officers and professional soldiers have own families who live in a military town near them.

They all need fuel, food, medicaments, electricity, protection against bandits, warm place to live, compliance with quarantine measures, ets. If anyone are a professional soldiers in a pretty isolated Siberian town, and his family live together with he and that town have a resurse reserves for a few month and only military in that town can keep the quarantine - it's clear what be better if that soldier be stay in a military. If anyone die - ok, no matter, it's a planned casualties.

Maybe it's question of a mentality, but lot's of people will be believe in government in a extremal situation. Also, sometimes people sacrifice himself for the survival of their society and expecially for the survivability of a their families. I'm sure what some people who infected by a Rash can dress isolated suit and do a very dangerous work. Of course they will know what they die, but their family maybe not. Or their friends. Of their nations. It's good reason for a some people, expesially in a military.

Some soldiers will be keep a quarantine in a isolate suits, some - killing a desertiers, some - defended and evacuate the resourses for own towns. Military depots for case a nuclear war. For example, very small part for one.

You seem overly reliant on military here.
Any military force requires extensive and constant funding and supplies to keep working, which is straight up impossible at the scale of Russia or the US when the entire surrounding world collapses. HALF of Russia's national budget comes from oil exports, which would within months virtually cease to exist, as would any and all vital imports to Russia.
The central government would inevitably collapse in such an apocalyptic scenario. You can't manage a country of 144 million people like that.

Hell, it's not even about the "surrounding world" collapsing. Russia and the US would have infected individuals within its borders long before these countries would seriously shut down any and all international trade and travel, and you only need that one infected individual wandering freely in crowded area for the Pandora's box to be irreversibly unleashed.
There's only so many individuals you can carry in a ship at once, and you only need one infected individual.
Even then, you'll be left with an enormous amount of refugees that have no infrastructure or economy to support them. You can't conjure up resources out of nothing.

Rather, your knowledgeable about the military isn't enough. In case of the Rash epidemy the national budget and oil exports will be no matter, really. Matter only how long the country can survive on own resources with closed borders.

Russia have a Federal Agency for State Reserves, where he have a system of a underground warehouses with a clear water, food, medicaments, oil, ets. That agency worked from the Cold War and should save a resources for people in the case of War. For 144 millions it's be enough more than for one year. For 14 millions?

If we add thousands of transport ships in the ocean (where we also have a Navy), military and civilian warehouses and well-motivated professional military who works for own families in a isolated military towns... The country will have a time for rebuild a economic system in a small size. Government never forget about a own people, because people itself is kinda like a resource. Then more people Goverment have then more Goverment can do.

You can't conjure up resources out of nothing.

So, how you can see at least Russia can get a resourses from "nothing". Underground warehouses for a nuclear war. IDK about USA.

There's only so many individuals you can carry in a ship at once, and you only need one infected individual. Even then, you'll be left with an enormous amount of refugees that have no infrastructure or economy to support them. You can't conjure up resources out of nothing.

I think I know what Military should do with a infected people. http://sssscomic.com/comicpages/54.jpg  Why they can't do same on ship or give for all a military chemical suits?

Also, every military in the world know how to bild a bases for refugees pretty fast. Sakhalin and Kamchatka may take about 5-7 millions of a people and it's be really harmless zones. Resourses Russia can get from a "nothing". Underground warehouses for a nuclear war. Ocean ships. Well organisated scavenge from indected towns.

It's bring enough time for bild a new economic system, but with few millions of people.

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #383 on: February 10, 2015, 10:34:26 AM »
snip

You're not getting my point. What happens in 90 years is irrelevant if a settlement doesn't survive the first years.
And, in order to survive, a settlement will need the basics: food, water, clothes... This is solved by scavenging, having access to forests and having arable lands, but scavenging will only be an option for the first year or so, you'll need a long term plan to survive these 90 years, and those plans usually require some land.
These actions require some cleansing first, to reduce any danger to the population, which is made out only of a minority, the inmune, and therefore incredibly small: Every life counts

Now, cleansing is basically a code word for "kill all trolls, beasts and giants in the area". In order to do this you can go the easy way (having the cold do most of the work) or the hard way (killing each and every single one by yourself, one by one). The hard way requires more time and resources and is way more dangerous to your cleansers (to the point where any try always ends in tragedy), and you could have used these resources to better defend the settlement itself.

The main point is:
Cold countries ? Less resources required, less risk
Warm countries ? Way more resources required, bigger risk

You can't settle anywhere, more so if your settlers are too few (as would be the case with immune-only communities)



Now, let's get to your post:

Crew travelling around and survivors entering buildings: The weather was cool and crisp, and the interior of any building can have a nest, with the trolls inside being perfectly awake and full of murderous desires.

Bows and spears: Both require resources (wood and metals for the arrwheads and spearheads). Once again, getting any resources means doing some cleansing first. Spears are useless: Trolls don't care for any organs but the brain, and don't seem to bleed out; you'll need a lucky strike to the head, which is hard when that thing is attacking you. Bladed weapons (which require "rare" materials such as iron and in bigger quantities) are a much better option, since you can cut it's limbs and then destroy the head more easily. Arrows are tiny spears that can be launched far. You'll get a range, and that range will give you time to aim at the head, and you'll have to pray the shot is bot accurate and strong enough to hit the head, break the skull and tear the brain. and loading your bow requires some valuable time, too. Guns are more precise, are faster to reload and have a longer range while packing enough of a punch.

Asuming we start with these cleansing resources already (maybe it's a military base), it'll run out too fast, which would have been alleviated by the use of the cold as a weapon, and then we're back to the way less effective sticks and stones.

The Alps: They are cold. We were talking about reduced setlements surviving somewhere warm. That aside, your point about dams is quite good. Not so much the one about burning down the valley; by what you say, you seem to expect the fire to kill all the trolls, but the main purpose is to leave them exposed. See step 3.

Nature retaking the world in 90 years: First you have to survive those 90 years, and even then, nature taking back a place doesn't cleanse it from trolls or makes it any safer. In fact, it provides more places for them to nest.

BrainBlow

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #384 on: February 10, 2015, 12:19:30 PM »
I think that people here don't understand absolutely modus operandi of the armed forces. Rash epidemy from point of view of a World Military looks like a Third World War. If you're interested, and the Soviet Union and the United States are actively developed biological weapons during the Cold War and the military are required to have an action plan in this case. Moreover, no one here could say that it really was not a biological weapon.
None of their biological weapons were like the Rash sickness in the SSSS universe. The rash spreads as easily as a normal flu does(even without the part where other mammals spread it), and there's hardly any countries in the first world that do not get a wave of at least one flu strain every year.


In any case, the Rash Epidemic will be looks like a War. Dying officers and crumbling economic system, the panic everywhere. And really Military should be ready for that.
No it isn't, and it never was.
At best they were semi-prepared for hunkering away during a nuclear war in which the absolute majority of the population would perish regardless.
They were not, and are especially not today prepared for an extremely virulent disease with a near 100% mortality rate which then also turns a portion of the infectees into terrifying monsters.
What you're saying is also inconsistent with what you later present as how the military would then "save Russia."

Rash is a airborne disease with a big incubation period and if people know about that they can make something for defence. Quarantine, isolation, protective suits and masks. Russian military, for example, have a special military units of a anty-biological and anty-chemical defence, and usually every military base have at least one company.
Again, it doesn't matter. Once the disease is in their mids(and it takes time to visibly manifest) it is already too late.
You can't manage a country of 144 million people like that, and you certainly cannot keep an already poorly funded and poorly equipped military force going without the infrastructure to support it, especially when the disease is already infecting military personnel. The military would perish just as the civilians do.


Of course, lots of military people died in first few next weeks but the soldiers and officers in a centralized military compounds will be have lots of reasons for save that centralized system, because only if they save a coordination and discipline they get a chance to survive. And really lots of officers and professional soldiers have own families who live in a military town near them.
And with this you can damn near guarantee that you'll have people smuggling their sick relatives to "safe zones" in hopes of treatment.


Rather, your knowledgeable about the military isn't enough. In case of the Rash epidemy the national budget and oil exports will be no matter, really. Matter only how long the country can survive on own resources with closed borders.
Once again, it doesn't matter. As soon as the rash is within the borders and spreading among the population, it is only a matter of time.

Russia have a Federal Agency for State Reserves, where he have a system of a underground warehouses with a clear water, food, medicaments, oil, ets. That agency worked from the Cold War and should save a resources for people in the case of War. For 144 millions it's be enough more than for one year. For 14 millions?
Going to need sources for that one.
Again, it doesn't matter. If you only have one finite resource pool then it is only a matter of time before you start starving to death. And I can pretty much guarantee you that these reserves you speak of are not in Kamchatka of all places. No, if they are anywhere, they are safely stored somewhere in Western-Russia, which will be the hotzone of the rash sickness.

If we add thousands of transport ships in the ocean (where we also have a Navy), military and civilian warehouses and well-motivated professional military who works for own families in a isolated military towns... The country will have a time for rebuild a economic system in a small size. Government never forget about a own people, because people itself is kinda like a resource. Then more people Goverment have then more Goverment can do.
Rebuild on what? And by whom?
You keep saying "resources" like it's a magic buzzword, and nowhere here do you present a reasonable rationale for the rash to be unable to spread to them.


I think I know what Military should do with a infected people. http://sssscomic.com/comicpages/54.jpg  Why they can't do same on ship or give for all a military chemical suits?
A ship where? You're either implying that St Petersburg could be a safe haven(you're really going to need to explain your rationale on that one), or you're implying that Russia somehow magically transports enormous amounts of west-Russian refugees to Yuzhno-Sakhalisnk as the entire country falls apart at the seams, and then somehow creates a sustainable nation on an island whose economy revolves around oil production.
In any scenario, West-Russia is completely and utterly doomed.
The military and the economy are not magical forces.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2015, 12:27:08 PM by BrainBlow »


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FinnishViking

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #385 on: February 10, 2015, 02:04:20 PM »
Hmm one thing i wonder is that how do the Trolls and Giants work in open plains like the steppe of Russia.

Since there isn't really anything to build nests on and the area is so large one could imagine a nomadic group being able to survive on the virtue of always being on the move away from the what i presume to be just few monsters around the area meaning they could actually survive like some of their ancestors.

Mongolia for one could be a place where civilization continues to exist with the life style shifting back to their nomadic roots.

Oskutin

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #386 on: February 10, 2015, 07:19:47 PM »
Jenisei river could have system of about 20K people at the year 90.
Lena and other siberian rivers could have too.

Maybe some groups utilize trans-siberian railroad with armored trains.

Lovely

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #387 on: February 11, 2015, 03:53:29 AM »
None of their biological weapons were like the Rash sickness in the SSSS universe. The rash spreads as easily as a normal flu does(even without the part where other mammals spread it), and there's hardly any countries in the first world that do not get a wave of at least one flu strain every year.

Sweden, Finland and Norway have a lot of people without immunity, and they survived for 90 years. Why you thinking that ordinary people will be more smart than the special military unit or will be have more resourses? Do you seriously believe that the military didn't learn the possibility of creating biological weapons on basis of the flu and never thinked how to counter that?

Rash is not a magical infection. Rash is a airborne infection like a flu and preventive measures to counter the infection commonly used everywhere in first world. Of course, anty-flu measures isn't very effective but only because it's very expensive - distribute gas masks to the entire population and constantly use a paranoid quarantine and disinfection measures takes lots of money and extremely uncomfortable. Better to be sick for week. But in case of Rash it's difference between 100% death and survival,

In case if that infection will be deadly like a Rash - the military can create a quarantine measures like in Sweden 90 years later, but will be have more resourses, well-trained people and various attempts. They will be have less time only.

So, wrong thesis.

They were not, and are especially not today prepared for an extremely virulent disease with a near 100% mortality rate which then also turns a portion of the infectees into terrifying monsters.


Military people in the world are only people who are ready for same situations. If not for a Rash ok, but they are ready for a nuclear war. I'm close familiar with a Soviets military plans from Cold War age and they have a plans how to save the survivors after a US nuclear strikes on Ural mountains, in conditions of a total radiation and total loss of communication and command. Of course, that plans don't had any guarantees but that plans is more then no-military people have. Also, military know how to organize and operate people in an environment of chaos. Of course they don't ready for a Rash, but they ready for same type of a chaos and they have more resources and skills for survival than anyone else.

So, wrong thesis.

What you're saying is also inconsistent with what you later present as how the military would then "save Russia."

How many people and factory need to save for "save a Russia"? 5-10% of people and pretty close technological lvl is enough? I never tell what military can save all Russia.

You can't manage a country of 144 million people like that, and you certainly cannot keep an already poorly funded and poorly equipped military force going without the infrastructure to support it, especially when the disease is already infecting military personnel. The military would perish just as the civilians do.

It's questions of a time. Really we should ask - how many time need for Rash for kill main part of population in the Russia? How many time need for collapse of a control under main part of Russia? And how many work can do these people before everything will collapse?

Russia is a big country with a large number of isolated cities and regions, a high level of emergency preparedness and well-trained military.

It's mean that at a time when Moscow and St. Petersburg will be infected and depopulated, Russia still be have lots of towns and military bases where infected only one-two man or noone and in that towns people will be know what Rash is a: 100% deadly, have long hidden incubation period and turns people into monsters. And how we know - prepared people can stop the Rash. And it's also mean what goverment of HQ can keep control under the own military, because that military will be not "a poorly funded and poorly equipped military force without the infrastructure to support it."

In current time Russia have a second military budget in the world after USA and if Russia don't have enough funding I don't know who have enough funding. Also, we still have a Soviets stocks of military equipment and ammunition. Maybe it's old equipment but it's still workl. And we have a Federal State Reserves Agency where we have lots of no-military resource stocks. And we have a resourse stocks of Military itself.

Also, if Goverment need to keep the control over military in Russia the Goverment need to keep the control under the nuclear submarines and Navy only. This will be enough to destroy the rebellious parts, but I sure what it's never happend - the military realise what as a system they have more chance to survivability. Navy families (main part of them live in Murmans and near Pacific Ocean, and it's pretty lonely part of Russia) will be under control of a ground army and ground nuclear missiles.

And really - I'm sure what the Duty should be enough reason for loyalty to the Goverment and HQ when they try to save someone in Russia.

So, wrong thesis.

And with this you can damn near guarantee that you'll have people smuggling their sick relatives to "safe zones" in hopes of treatment.

Yep. I see no problem with that if we will be have lots of quarantine zones. On the Kuril Islands, for example, where he have a military port and military airfields. After the quarantine - helicopter on the Sakhalin. Control of this is provided by the Pacific Fleet. Families of that Navy usually live on the Kamchatka Peninsula, and it is a pretty safe area - so, that Navy is deeply interested to do their Duty well.

And why that "safe zones" will be out a control over "Rash"?

Also, don't forget what Russia is extremely high, and the movements are possible only with the help of the fleet or aircraft, and Russia have the better AA system in the world.

Once again, it doesn't matter. As soon as the rash is within the borders and spreading among the population, it is only a matter of time.

Not in Russia, not in USA and not in Canada. That countries is damned big and if govements close a borders inside a country that counties should have a entire regions without rash. And that countries have a military and AirForce for control that. It's give them a time for the preparation, like in Sweden.

And I can pretty much guarantee you that these reserves you speak of are not in Kamchatka of all places. No, if they are anywhere, they are safely stored somewhere in Western-Russia, which will be the hot zone of the rash sickness.

If you can guarantee that it's mean what you know the Russian state secrets. I just can show you one open GPS-coordinates of that reserves. Helos from Sakhalin can reach that zone.

16. ??????????: 53°50'31«N 91°15'13»E. 4-?? ?? ?????? (??????????), ??????? ??? ???????? «?????» - on Google-maps you can find that via "??????? ??? ???????? «?????»"

Indeed, most of these reserves are located in the European part of Russia, but only for the reason that there lives the biggest part of Russian. It's be stupid take out reserves from military base on Kamchatka, or from lonely northern towns. Also, usually that reserves is far from town, expesially in European part of Russia, otherwise they would be destroyed by a nuclear strike, and it's possible to evacuate it on nearest military airport in first few weeks of a Rash and later withdraw it. Also, exist lots of transport ships with a food  in ocean and Navy for stop that ships.

These reserves will be enough to create a self-sustaining economy with few millions people. Sakhalin and Kamchatka have developed fishing and agricultural industry by the way.

You keep saying "resources" like it's a magic buzzword, and nowhere here do you present a reasonable rationale for the rash to be unable to spread to them.

If I should to repeat, I repeat.

Isolated areas in Siberia, on Sakhalin and Kamchatka and ships in Ocean be infected rash later for obvious reasons. They will be have a time they will have time to prepare. It's mean that at a time when Moscow and St. Petersburg will be infected and depopulated, Russia still be have lots of towns and military bases where infected only one-two man or noone and in that towns people will be know what Rash is a: 100% deadly, have long hidden incubation period and turns people into monsters. And how we know - prepared people can stop the Rash.

Resources - various warehouses, transport ships, ets. Stocks of the old world in safety zones will be sufficient for months exactly. After that - the Navy can help to rob port cities and the Air Force can help to rop a infected towns during the winter. I think what Trolls can't do anything against helos and thermobaric weapon, and it's help a lot to fight against them.

When main part of military stuff will be worn out and broken the savety zones on Sakhalin and Kamchatka should be self-sufficient. That states already have a fishing industry and agriculture, coal and iron and geothermal energy on Kamchatka, nuclear reactors from submarins and lots of people to bild other things. If they don't have anything what they need - they can use a resourses from warehouses and scavenge resourses from towns.

Civilization needs the few types of resources: manpower, food, tools and equipment, energy and mineral resources.

Sakhalin and Kamchatka have near 800.000 people itself. Also it's isolated places and Rash will be here later then in Moskow, so in case of Rash here can be infecter towns can be cleared by Navy&Air Force (Marine and battle-helos) and after get a people from Siberia and Nothern Russia and ships in Ocean. That places have lots of mineral resourses, geothermal energy and infrastructure for use all that. Stocks of provisions and fuel from warehouses allow to rebild that infrastructure for biggest number of a people. In addition, there already is a good the fishing industry.

Equipment for another types of industry can be evacuated, it's hard but possible. Old Soviet manual lathes, rolling mills, metal presses, chemical equipment, woodworking machinery. Mainly that old stuff is left on... lonely and forgotten Siberian towns with old soviets infrastructry near rivers like Lena, ets. Bingo!

In any scenario, West-Russia is completely and utterly doomed.

I'm agree. West-Part of Russia don't have any chance like main part Europe.

However, it is possible to save few town in Ural part of Russia, may be in the Altai Mountains, and exatly in the Siberian and East-Part of Russia. For example, my state in Urals mountan have only 4 million of people and territory in four times more than France. Rash will be here faster then we close the Transsiberian Railroad, but Nizhny Tagil - it's a town with tank-factory where me making a T-72 and T-90 - in 150 kilometers away from my town and have only one road. Maybe military in Tagil will be have a time to stop the spread of the rash, because they have all that they need - shelter in the event of nuclear war, warehouses with a food, military units of the of the chemical and biological protection, lots of well-isolated military bases around the town where they can enter the quarantine measures before infection.

If not - they at least can immerse the some equipment from factory on transport aircraft or railway and run away from that zone.

I'm sure what in case of Russia combination of factors such as: vast territory, cold climate, complex terrain, narrow transport infrastructure (only one railroad across the country, few nothern states have only automobile, sea and air communication) and low mobility of citizen from small towns, good military infrastructure and high military budgets, availability of stocks in the event of nuclear war, the presence of the Navy and nuclear weapons, economic self-sufficiency for basic needs (yes, may on more worse lvl then in Europe, but we have own food and clothing and equipment) - allow to save a several million people.

Russia will be have a main part of citizen in zone of Pacific and may some towns in northern states and in Siberia. Basically, the reason for this is the Russian navy, because they can maintain control over Kamchatka and Sakhalin. It's allow Russia to have pretty big safe zone. Also, I'm sure what US Navy also can be nearby. May be they will hold control over Alaska or Hawaii.

Two big Navy in Pacific allow to clean infected islands from Rash in first few years, if they will be working together. In addition, both countries have nuclear weapons and they can threaten to use that, if Russia or USA will not accept refugees from their country,

Laowai

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #388 on: February 11, 2015, 04:08:56 AM »
And, in order to survive, a settlement will need the basics: food, water, clothes... This is solved by scavenging, having access to forests and having arable lands, but scavenging will only be an option for the first year or so, you'll need a long term plan to survive these 90 years, and those plans usually require some land.

I'm not sure about Europe, but the States we have some food with shelf lives for years. Just imagine how long a group of people could live off of one CostCo. You could even grab a tent from that CostCo, set up camp on the roof, and go grab food as needed.

These actions require some cleansing first, to reduce any danger to the population, which is made out only of a minority, the inmune, and therefore incredibly small: Every life counts

Looking at just modern day Europe, there's 7.42 million people. Assuming that only .1 percent of Europeans are immune, that's 742,000 people who are immune. Now, understanding that Europe is a large place, lets assume that only .1 of those people manage to find each other in the Alps. That's 752 people. Although not an ideal starting population to avoid genetic drift, it's also not that bad.

In my earlier calculations, I assumed an equilibrium between the alleles. So if I=Not immune and i=immune, then f(1) is assumed to be II:40%, Ii:60%, ii:10%. If immunity is genetic, then that means 90% of people are killed. If only 90% of people are killed, then there's still a lot of people on the planet.

Now, cleansing is basically a code word for "kill all trolls, beasts and giants in the area". In order to do this you can go the easy way (having the cold do most of the work) or the hard way (killing each and every single one by yourself, one by one). The hard way requires more time and resources and is way more dangerous to your cleansers (to the point where any try always ends in tragedy), and you could have used these resources to better defend the settlement itself.

I was picturing just following behind the fire and getting any trolls that survive in holes in the ground. Sort of like a spear fishing/whack-a-mole approach :)


Crew travelling around and survivors entering buildings: The weather was cool and crisp, and the interior of any building can have a nest, with the trolls inside being perfectly awake and full of murderous desires.

Bows and spears: Both require resources (wood and metals for the arrwheads and spearheads). Once again, getting any resources means doing some cleansing first. Spears are useless: Trolls don't care for any organs but the brain, and don't seem to bleed out; you'll need a lucky strike to the head, which is hard when that thing is attacking you. Bladed weapons (which require "rare" materials such as iron and in bigger quantities) are a much better option, since you can cut it's limbs and then destroy the head more easily. Arrows are tiny spears that can be launched far. You'll get a range, and that range will give you time to aim at the head, and you'll have to pray the shot is bot accurate and strong enough to hit the head, break the skull and tear the brain. and loading your bow requires some valuable time, too. Guns are more precise, are faster to reload and have a longer range while packing enough of a punch.

I don't believe cleansing would be required to get some wood, assuming the trolls tend to stay where they are. And I'm not saying people wouldn't have to adapt. The ability to move quietly and surprise the trolls would be essential. Humans have hunted with spears for centuries. Our ancestors were able to take down mammoths and all manners of creatures with spears. Spears also have an advantage over bladed weapons by being longer, giving you some space between you and the troll. Also, don't forget the awesome atlatl.

Nature retaking the world in 90 years: First you have to survive those 90 years, and even then, nature taking back a place doesn't cleanse it from trolls or makes it any safer. In fact, it provides more places for them to nest.

I didn't mean to imply that I thought nature taking over would cleanse the land. I think you're right in thinking it would make some places more dangerous, especially as forests and jungles start to take back entire cities. But it would provide more resources, and given that birds are immune, I think nature would grow back faster than anyone would expect. Admittedly, my only frame of reference on this comes from the after-effects of hurricane Katrina, which is in a very warm and wet climate where plants grow quickly and never stop, so I'm not entirely sure how long it would take northern climates to change.

JoB

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #389 on: February 11, 2015, 08:46:49 AM »
Why you thinking that ordinary people will be more smart than the special military unit or will be have more resourses?
We've been shown a selection of Nordic would-be survivors of the Rash in the prologue, their common trait was "OH GOD RUN AWAY AND HIIIIDE" (long before a common panic took on), as far as we know, there was not a single active soldier among them. Please explain how your military is superbly qualified for that.

In my earlier calculations, I assumed an equilibrium between the alleles. So if I=Not immune and i=immune, then f(1) is assumed to be II:40%, Ii:60%, ii:10%. If immunity is genetic, then that means 90% of people are killed. If only 90% of people are killed, then there's still a lot of people on the planet.
The Nordic countries minus Iceland each had 5-5.5 million people in year 0 and 10-20 thousand in year 90. Even ignoring the probable population regrowth after establishing the first stable post-Rash settlements, that's a 99.7% mortality - from the Rash and the subsequent monsters. The pre-Rash immunity rate has been estimated to .1-.15% by several fans.

Of course, we have no information whatsoever about what pre-Rash immunity rates outside the Nordic countries might have been, given that both survival factors appreciated in the comic itself (genetics and Old Gods) could vary a lot between ethnicities ...
native: :de: secondary: :us: :fr:
:artd: :book1+: :book2: :book3: :book4: etc.
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