Poll

What do you think the state of things is beyond Scandinavia?

More of the Silent World: Trolls, beasts and giants everywhere
7 (16.7%)
A few groups of humans, but mostly wilderness
14 (33.3%)
USA and other superpowers are relatively intact
0 (0%)
Scorched Earth: nothing, not even grosslings, is alive
0 (0%)
Plenty of places like Scandinavia, but isolated
21 (50%)

Total Members Voted: 38

Voting closed: July 03, 2015, 03:28:37 PM

Author Topic: Survivor communities outside the known world  (Read 229996 times)

Hrolfr

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #300 on: November 04, 2014, 11:11:41 AM »
Assuming the first survivors of the rash illness due to natural immunity HAD medical care long enough, when they came back to consciousness, the horrifying speed & completeness probably meant they woke up in a silent world where everyone else ... except for some other few early-sick people were now in a coma with no one to care for them and would thus die.

What I mean is that if given medical care 10% can survive the rash as human,  then without medical care a 3-5 day coma state (no water/I.V.) is enough to kill just about everyone who gets ill.  Hence the 99.999% or so extinction rate on humans, everyone who got sick after the first couple of days died not from rash, but from lack of care.

Any survivor is going to wake up somewhere where all modern services have failed, there are dead or dieing people everywhere.   Now they can probably scavenge food & Shelter for a while because society seems to have died so fast that the damage from rioting, whatever, you might expect will be minimal.  As people got sick, the last one out the door closed the door and walked away, the power generator locations & power distribution  went into fail safe shutdowns due to instability.   The water pressure in the mains went to zero in most places.   The gas lines  closed down.  However any fires that break out...there's no fire department. Very bad.

But these people are going to be isolated, scared,  traumatized ( EVERYONE they know is dead, they are living in a city of the dead) and desperate as mountains of unburied dead result in massively unsanitary conditions...and now the demons/trolls/what ever come.  :o     Better Learn Quick
 
If the Rash doesn't kill you, chances are you will die of Trolls/Demons/madness (for all but the seriously iron clad sane)/cholera/stupidity/bad luck in very short order.  Sucks to be you.

IF THAT doesn't kill you pretty quick and you make it to somewhere defensible with other enough survivors you are going to have to learn how to scavenge (and not get killed by the demons/trolls/disease for a year and THEN learn how to farm efficiently enough to survive. If you learn that, your next challenge is that within a couple of years AT MOST you will need to learn how to farm with no tractors or mechanical assistance as you will both run out of fuel ( both diesel and gas have a shelf life) and tractors need parts.   That's harder than if looks, it's a LOT harder than it looks.  And you have no draft animals. ( Hello slavery!  I have gun, you are strong, pull plow or die. Probably a bad idea in the long run but it will look like a valid solution to some people.)

AND if you your group is mentally tough as nails, lucky as hell, hard working like myrmidons,  survivors doesn't have several hundred members you will have inbreeding problems sooner than later.

Tough medieval peasants had generations of experience to draw on, but you modern (wo)man are by comparison, soft, stupid and woefully ignorant.

IF IF IF... Conclusion: Death for EVERYONE as makes no difference.




Hrolfr

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #301 on: November 04, 2014, 03:03:13 PM »
North American Communities

There are 3 phases of note:

1. Initial Rash Survival - Can your community self quarantine fast enough and for long enough?

Lots of places in the New World meet this criteria, villages & towns in the Far north, islands, but will those who can understand and DO IT? Savagely enough, fast enough and with enough healthy paranoia?

2. Short Term survival - Post Apocalypse.  is your region in a favorable place where you can survive the after effects and survive for a coupe of years

   While you do not necessarily need  hundreds of miles of water, apparently a 4 season climate that gets snowy- cold is very helpful.  Obviously having access to lots of pre-apocalypse resources will help too.   It's unclear what the post rash troll/demon things need to stop them.   Is a large river enough?   Are hundreds of km's of grasslands sufficient. Can they cross ice?

What's the infection/survival  rate of wild animals, it's not 100% we know by inference.


3. Long term - Got enough people to maintain enough technology to have a stable civilization?

Civilization, even a harsh "geared down" survival mode one needs LOTS of skills. Butchers, Bakers, Farmers, paper makers, blacks smiths, refiners&Smelters , miners, dentists, Doctors, loggers,  ....just making a graphite pencil takes, like 75 industrial processes...

You need enough people and enough of a birth rate to accept attrition losses that would seem INSANELY high by 21st century euro-american standards. Basically,  women had better be having 5+ (surviving) kids EACH, and that means safe areas with decent food supplies.  (Hey, there will not be any birth control, and the nights will be very long.  Rural Quebec province back when it was very Catholic up to 60 years ago it was not terribly unusual to get married at 16-19 and have 6+ (or more, surviving) kids.  I've met older people from families of 12+ kids it wasn't odd or unusual.  Healthful climate, lots of food.)

So What do we have:

Mainland North America: Mostly a dead zone, most of it is too warm it would seem.

Islands both Water surrounded or a land surface that is easily controllable.

Victoria Island (West Coast) - Will not survive Phase 1.  Too many people. Too close /easy to refugees from Seattle/Vancouver.  Might be possible to cleanse later if there is any population pressure.  Also too warm, probably.

Hawaiian Island chain: too many people, improbable they can quarantine.  Some of the secondary islands might be a possible refuge for the remnants of the US Pacific Fleet that survive Phase 1.  Iffy.   Waay too warm.

East Coast:

The Rock.  aka Newfoundland  aka "the Other Iceland" possible, really no worse physically than Iceland, but doubtful that they could quarantine in time, the Canadian Navy out of Halifax MIGHT be able to go "off the reservation" and enforce something, it's a pity because otherwise it's a pretty good choice.

Prince Edward Island, not terribly cold, but only one very long bridge to the mainland. Hard to maintain a quarantine but the big east coast army base Gagetown is "nearby" in New Brunswick and a rogue army unit might be able to bottle it up in time and energetically defend it.    Long term, it's ideal, great farming, not really close to any serious population centers.

Anticosti Island in Gulf of St. Lawrence. No infrastructure, no one ever settled there in any numbers. There's a reason. Wretched weather, iffy farming.

Lac St Jean/Saguenay Fjord:  Ideal except for one thing.  It's got more electrical power than you can imagine, it has a small town, it's been farmed since the 16-1700's, the winters are BRUTAL. It's surrounded by dozens of miles and miles of nothing  ;D  and not much else.  Access is limited to a couple of roads. The Royal 22nd Regiment ( Mechanized Infantry) is located nearby at Valcartier Army Base. They could EASILY seal it off from the south.  The problem:   kind of close to  Quebec City, but really,  that's no worse than Stockholm/Mora. Sealing off the North Shore road also protects the communities down the gulf coast. And they could retreat up the Fjord for a better tactical position.  Europeans take note, and look at the maps, huge distances, low population density.

Inland:

Depends how the great plains serve as a barrier and if a quarantine could be engaged and enforced fast enough.   There are number of smaller towns out in places like Manitoba and Saskatchewan that A. Have harsh winters.   -40C is _common_, highs of -20C for weeks and weeks.  B. Are miles and miles (and miles) from "big" cities (that are not so big: Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon) and that C.  Have lots of old (and new) order Mennonite farmers who know how to farm without that  much "tech stuff". E.g Brandon.   Summers are warm, hot and dry.


Also Inland:   The Lake Superior & Lake of the woods littoral, places like Thunder Bay, the more isolated parts of the Michigan "Upper Peninsula", the bit to the north of Wisconsin...  limited access, if someone slammed down a quarantine , hard winters, 100's of miles from large cities. People used to being ignored and snowed in.  Again for Europeans, look at the maps, the size of the lakes & distances is astonishing. 

Most of these places would not make it, frankly , the Phase 1 hurdle is VERY High, the rash is incredibly contagious and does not appear symptomatically until its far too late to matter. It's unlikely any authority (military or civil) in North America will react fast enough (proactively enough, with enough paranoia, and enough disciplined savagery) to quarantine successfully.   But that is true for EVERYWHERE.  It's hard to tell non symptomatic people, "go away and die, or we will shoot you right there. it's even harder to do"  Would you enjoy shooting and killing healthy looking women and children?   That's what it will take.  No exceptions. No Mercy.  Mass murder for the greater good.

On the other hand, some Swedes, Danes and Finn's survived, so it is theoretically possible.








 










 

Noah O.

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #302 on: November 04, 2014, 05:31:57 PM »
I can just imagine those Doomsday Preppers going "HA! YOU LAUGHED AT US BEFORE, BUT WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?"

BrainBlow

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #303 on: November 05, 2014, 06:21:45 PM »
I can just imagine those Doomsday Preppers going "HA! YOU LAUGHED AT US BEFORE, BUT WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?"
They'll most likely die because they're typically loners who, while prepared, are in reality only prepared to survive a few weeks or months on their own.
And, of course, if you're not immune then it won't amount to much if you're not in a safe, permanent settlement.


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Noah O.

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #304 on: November 05, 2014, 06:33:50 PM »
They'll most likely die because they're typically loners who, while prepared, are in reality only prepared to survive a few weeks or months on their own.
And, of course, if you're not immune then it won't amount to much if you're not in a safe, permanent settlement.
But still, before they run out of food, I'd imagine that they'd be pretty smug.

BrainBlow

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #305 on: November 05, 2014, 07:40:35 PM »
But still, before they run out of food, I'd imagine that they'd be pretty smug.
Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.
-Romans 1:22


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Calidris

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #306 on: November 06, 2014, 07:06:10 PM »
That'd be fascinating to watch, actually...

Raya

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #307 on: November 07, 2014, 05:19:08 PM »
But still, before they run out of food, I'd imagine that they'd be pretty smug.

Ever read Domain by James Herbert? At one point the plot takes a temporary diversion to focus on a character like that. He hides in his bunker as the world goes to shit, positively gloating as his neighbours are hammering on the door begging for help. He's very smug indeed until he realises a) his house was blown over in the apocalypse and the rubble is blocking the escape hatches and b) the neighbour's angry cat is trapped in there with him. tl;dr the cat eventually kills him.

Prestwick

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #308 on: November 10, 2014, 06:34:53 AM »
A reasonable assumption if we assume that Africa and Eurasia are the first to be hit and paralysed by the advanced stages of the pandemic, followed by North-America, then South-America and Oceania. But today's Argentina is not the same Junta-led Argentina that invaded the Falklands back in the days, regardless of contuining Argentine claims on the islands. The more immediate threat is probably Argentine boat refugees that may include people who have are still in the incubation phace of the disease.

I'd agree with this. Argentina's military is currently in ruins. Its navy can barely put to sea without breaking down and/or running out of money. It hasn't got one serviceable aircraft carrier. Its air force is made up of ancient Super Etendards or Skyhawks and the Saab Grippen fighters wouldn't even begin to solve the chronic crippling problems the Argentine Air Force faces.

On the basis that any flotilla would get blown out of the water by the on station Type 45 Destroyer, Argentina's army becomes irrelevant.

Also note that there are currently 2,000 - 3,000 British troops on the island all trained to NATO standards and well armed, defending a British possession whose status is backed under international law and by Britain's allies in Europe and elsewhere (i.e. where it matters).

On this basis, the Falklands would be well placed to survive the initial phase of the collapse of world order.

One note about the possibility of boat people trying to make the journey across to the Falklands of South Georgia is that I'd say it would be incredibly difficult due to notoriously tempestuous South Atlantic which makes the North Sea look like a boating lake in comparison.

One should read Sir Ernest Shackleton's book "South" where he and three comrades made a 300 mile voyage during the summer in a lifeboat and almost died in the attempt. Multiple times.

Richard Weir

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #309 on: November 10, 2014, 02:58:27 PM »
While I accept the situation as regards Argentina's military situation, I have to say that in the event of a major pandemic there is a very good chance that the British Government would withdraw the troops stationed there - and everywhere else in the world - as they try to maintain control of the domestic situation by bringing in troops they hope are not yet infected and thus not liable to lapse into a coma at short notice.
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BrainBlow

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #310 on: November 10, 2014, 04:27:16 PM »
While I accept the situation as regards Argentina's military situation, I have to say that in the event of a major pandemic there is a very good chance that the British Government would withdraw the troops stationed there - and everywhere else in the world - as they try to maintain control of the domestic situation by bringing in troops they hope are not yet infected and thus not liable to lapse into a coma at short notice.
Well that wouldn't matter very much as far as territorial status goes. Invading the Falklands would still be an utterly foolish endeavor as a pandemic rides through the world.
And by the end, too many people are dead for it to matter.


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Superdark33

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #311 on: November 10, 2014, 06:12:10 PM »
Yeah Argentina is very much hosed, Dramatic Intervention or otherwise.


A few pages ago i mentioned Malta to no response, anyone else willing to theorise about one of the oldest human settlements in the world?
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Fimbulvarg

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #312 on: November 10, 2014, 06:22:13 PM »
Yeah Argentina is very much hosed, Dramatic Intervention or otherwise.


A few pages ago i mentioned Malta to no response, anyone else willing to theorise about one of the oldest human settlements in the world?

Malta has enormous problems with African refugees already, I'd say they don't stand a chance.

Prestwick

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #313 on: November 11, 2014, 05:58:48 AM »
Malta has enormous problems with African refugees already, I'd say they don't stand a chance.

A lot of the Med would suffer the same problems. Iceland gets away with it due to being relatively remote and having a relatively decent military deterrent.

One thing that I've been thinking about is what about nomadic groups in areas such as deep in the Russian Far East or in the Amazon? Would it take longer for them to become infected due to their lack of interaction with the outside world or quicker due to them interacting with infected animals not knowing how bad the disease is?

Djenne

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Re: Survivor communities outside the known world
« Reply #314 on: November 16, 2014, 08:21:06 AM »
Well, we here in the Netherlands are ducked anyway, no way they're going to find any survivors with our population density :P

Well, maybe on our tiny islands on the north-west coasts? I think you could find some survivors over there.